Yes, PA-12 is a bellweather

I had to write about this election, because there has been a ridiculous amount of spin from Republicans about what it means for November. John Boehner made the claim that Republicans would pick up 100 seats in the House and Newt Gingrich made a slightly smaller estimate of 45-70 seats. The Democrats retaining PA-12 bodes poorly for Republican hopes of a wave. A lot right-wingers have been scrambling to make sense of this, saying that it is a solid Democratic district because of it's 2-1 voter registration numbers in favor of Democrats and that Republicans never really had a chance. If that were true, the NRCC wouldn't have poured money into the race, they don't have cash to just throw around on safe opposition seats. They really thought they could win this seat, but once they failed to do so, the argument changed.

This is exactly the sort of seat Republicans need for a majority in the House. Many marginal seats are in the Rust Belt, which includes Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio and parts of New York. If they cannot pick up seats here, where else can they? Republicans peaked heavily in the 1994 election, picking up Southern constituencies that had long been trending Republican, so it's not like they have options like they did back then. Also, there were lots of moderates that won seats, but this year isn't a good one for moderate Republicans to win primaries, so the odds get lower.

Democrats represent 49 districts that McCain won, getting a majority in the House would require them to get 40 of those seats to put them right at 218. A lot of these Democrats are safe because they do good work for their districts and bring home the bacon, so some seats are non-starters for Republicans if they aren't open. For Boehner and Gingrich's predictions to come true, Republicans would have to run the table on all those districts, plus pick up much more heavily Democratic districts. After PA-12, I suspect the Republicans won't raise expectations so high.

In 1994, Republicans won two May special elections and gained seats from Democrats, that was the sign of a wave coming. It's true that Republicans won a Senate seat in Massachusetts this year, but that election happened quite early in the year and it's hard to sustain that sort of momentum for months. I do think that the Republicans peaked too early and that nationalizing these individual races isn't going to resonate. In PA-12, they ran against Obama and Pelosi, but as the result proved, the voters were not factoring them into their decision. Other Democrats are going to take a note from Critz, run local and talk about jobs. That is why PA-12 is a bellweather.